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Two Years of Arab Springs
From April 01, 2013 until May 01, 2013
Casa Árabe is publishing an analysis on the second anniversary of the uprisings which broke out in Tunisia, Egypt, Libya, Syria and Yemen.
In the recent months of February and March, the Arab countries which witnessed popular uprisings celebrated their respective anniversaries, two years after the beginning of these revolts. From Tunisia, Egypt and Libya, which have achieved regime change, to Syria, which remains mired in a civil war, all of these processes have one factor in common: a lack of security and political advancement is leading to mistrust among the people, which may cause the aspirations sought in these transitions not to be fulfilled.
On the terrain, Syria continues to be trapped in a state of civil war. Desertions from the regular army are becoming more commonplace. The opposition remains divided. The regime, which seems to have taken a stronghold in many cities in the center of the country, including Aleppo, is, however, being subjected to great military pressure by rebels in the capital, Damascus. On the political level, the most significant change has been the election of a new Prime Minister. In mid-March, the National Opposition Coalition elected Ghassan Hitto (Damascus, 1963) to lead the interim government which will be responsible for channeling aid towards the rebels inside of the territory and becoming an alternative government to the Assad regime.
Yemen seems to be taking the right steps, always with the support of initiatives from the Gulf, and has now reached the third phase of its transition process: holding a national dialogue which includes the participation of nearly all political and social forces. This has placed the matter of the South’s separatism at the top of its list of priorities.
Tunisia, Egypt and Libya, which were the first three countries to do away with their leaders and go down the path towards democratization, now seem paralyzed in certain ways. The most significant events include the following: in Tunisia, the election of a new prime minister and the assassination of the well-known leftist opposition leader, Shukri Belaid; in Egypt, continued confrontations in the streets; the legal fight to delay the upcoming elections, and the endless debate surrounding the relationship between the Muslim Brotherhood and the military; and in Libya, the debate surrounding the “political isolation law” and the cleansing of the armed forces, with the added problem of the militias and the amount of weapons which have fallen outside the State’s control.
On the terrain, Syria continues to be trapped in a state of civil war. Desertions from the regular army are becoming more commonplace. The opposition remains divided. The regime, which seems to have taken a stronghold in many cities in the center of the country, including Aleppo, is, however, being subjected to great military pressure by rebels in the capital, Damascus. On the political level, the most significant change has been the election of a new Prime Minister. In mid-March, the National Opposition Coalition elected Ghassan Hitto (Damascus, 1963) to lead the interim government which will be responsible for channeling aid towards the rebels inside of the territory and becoming an alternative government to the Assad regime.
Yemen seems to be taking the right steps, always with the support of initiatives from the Gulf, and has now reached the third phase of its transition process: holding a national dialogue which includes the participation of nearly all political and social forces. This has placed the matter of the South’s separatism at the top of its list of priorities.
Tunisia, Egypt and Libya, which were the first three countries to do away with their leaders and go down the path towards democratization, now seem paralyzed in certain ways. The most significant events include the following: in Tunisia, the election of a new prime minister and the assassination of the well-known leftist opposition leader, Shukri Belaid; in Egypt, continued confrontations in the streets; the legal fight to delay the upcoming elections, and the endless debate surrounding the relationship between the Muslim Brotherhood and the military; and in Libya, the debate surrounding the “political isolation law” and the cleansing of the armed forces, with the added problem of the militias and the amount of weapons which have fallen outside the State’s control.
